"The four most dangerous words in investing are "This time its different" "(Sir John Templeton)As we enter the last quarter of 2019, September, historically the worst month for stocks bucked the trend as we saw all major markets produce a positive return - data being:
MSCI World +2.0% +15.7%
S&P 500 +1.7% +18.7%
FTSE +2.8% +10.1%
Nikkei +5.4% +9.1%
SSE +1.4% +17.4%
MSCI EM +2.0% +7.6%
And whilst the USD remains steadily strong in 2019, movements against the Greenback were as follows
GBP -1.0% +4.7%
EUR +1.0% +5.1%
JPY +1.9% -1.3%
AUD -0.1% +4.5%
CNY -0.1% +3.9%
It seems every day we wake up, the news stories we hear are like the proverbial one legged duck - swimming round in circles. US / China Trade War and Brexit occupying much of our news feeds but with no clarity on progress, let alone solutions or an end.
This creates Geopolitical risk and allows markets to be volatile as buying and selling is driven by emotion and is reactive.
Ironically though it is those "Same Same" situations which are key to Long term successful investing. Most of us today will go about a routine very similar to what we did yesterday and are likely to do the same again tomorrow and the next day.
What do we do every day? - Brush our teeth (Colgate +24% YTD) , Wash with Dove Shampoo (Unilver +19.0%), Logon on to our computer (Microsoft +37% YTD), Eat something (Nestle +33% YTD), Drink something (Pepsico +26% YTD)...I think you get the idea and those companies who are the leaders in these areas benefit from the inherent growth story that more people will be using their products today than they did yesterday. We are all living longer. People from Developing countries are consuming more. The world's population increases daily by around 200,000 people. most of whom will eat, drink, wash and work..therin lies the growth and where the long term money should be
Long term though, is not what everyone looks for and that is why it is key to bespoke your portfolio. As we enter the last quarter of 2019, historically this has been the most fruitful for investors by some way. However that cycle was turned on its head last year when the S&P fell a whopping 14%. If you have one year to go to retirement and your share portfolio falls by 14% in a quarter, no matter how many of the great stocks mentioned before you own, it takes time to recover those losses and time may not be something you have.
This is why having Alternatives is also important. Owning assets without correlation to the stock market and / or produce fixed income protect you from similar scenarios such as what we saw this time last year.
So make sure that your portfolio is set up to suit your requirements. As I have said many times, no one has a crystal ball and can predict the future. The amount of times I hear comments such as "They say another crash is coming " - These statements have no substance. For every analyst who is bullish on the markets, you will also find someone who is bearish...so someone is right and someone is wrong. So you have to manage your position so you are hedged enough but not so much so that your growth is impeded...not an easy balancing act and an area we can help with
Sometimes it seems like we are in a forever changing world, yet sometimes it seems that we are living in GroundHog Day. Either way when it comes to investing never forget the words of the great Peter Lynch..."Know what you own and know why you own it"....
"Complexity is your enemy. Any fool can make something complicated, it is hard to keep things simple" (Richard Branson)A volatile August has come to an end with markets ending the month down. With the decent gains so far in 2019, this was not unexpected. So as much of Europe returns from their holidays, kids go back to school after the long break, what can we expect for September and Quarter Four as we head to the "Business End" of the year
August numbers being:
MSCI World -2.2% +13.5%
S&P 500 -1.8% +16.7%
FTSE -5.0% +7.1%
Nikkei -3.8% +3.4%
SSE -0.5% +15.8%
MSCI EM -5.4% +5.5%
On the currencies we saw a mixed month for the USD, losing ground against a strengthening Japanese Yen but an unusually large movement in the Chinese Yuan rate....raw data being:
GBP -0.3% +4.6%
EUR +0.3% +4.1%
JPY -2.7% -3.1%
AUD +1.7% +4.6%
CNY +3.9% +4.1%
September is historically the worst month when it comes to investing in the S&P 500 with an average loss of 0.5% since the Index started in 1962. Of course this does not mean that this month will be negative, in the same that that whilst Quarter four is historically the the most profitable - yet Q4 in 2018 was a shocker.
No form of predicting or forecasting can ever be certain. The truth is we do not know whether the markets will go up or go down next month, or indeed for the remainder of this year. This is even more apparent given the market volatility - the VIX which is the indicator of the S&P's volatility is currently 17 versus an average of 11.
Our job as Investment professionals is to look at what we do know and make a judgement call on that.
So what do we know?
We know that tomorrow we will eat, drink, wash, drive, use our phone, use a laptop...I think you get the picture.
Within the S&P 500 there are 57 companies which have been given the title "Dividend Aristocrats" This refers to companies who have increased their dividends every year for a period of 25 years or more. Its obvious that in order to do this, the company has to be successful and buying shares in successful companies gets you long term capital growth (and income to boot!).
Taking these aristocrats to the next level (Dividend Royalty perhaps) are 11 companies who have increased their dividends every year for more than 55 years. The largest of these and household names include :
Colgate 56 years
Coca Cola 57 Years
Proctor and Gamble 62 Years
An indication of enormous success is when a product is know by its brand name rather than its generic name. The term for this is a "proprietary eponym".
Certainly when I grew up I can remember using Tip - ex and my mum using a Hoover. It probably wasn't until I was in my teens that I was aware these were actually called correction fluid and a vacuum cleaner. Coke (Dividend Royalty) is another example, I can't ever recall asking for a can of "Cola" I've noticed here in Thailand, locals referring to crisps / chips as "Lays" (Pespico Brand - Dividend Aristocrat") and rarely do you hear the words nappies or diapers, its always "Pampers" (Proctor & Gamble - the King of Dividends with its 62 year ongoing increase!)
With the aforementioned companies looking after our everyday needs, the daily increase technology has on our lives and the requirement for pharmaceutical companies to provide healthcare for a growing and ageing population, it's large companies in these sectors that make up the lion's share of the S&P 500. We know the products and services provided by these multi nationals will be used tomorrow. This is illustrated in the index's performance having averaged 9.8% per annum. A 30 year old who saves US$1,000 a month at those rates of return has US$2.09 m by the age of 60...
Using Investment legends like Peter Lynch, Warren Buffet & Terry Smith could have got you 50% more (though there isn't time for the active v passive argument here)
So focus on what you know. Like Pepsico, Coca Cola, Unilever, Proctor and Gamble will sell their wares to billions of people in 180 different currencies tomorrow. Leave forecasting to others as it really is a thankless task. Just ask Michael Fish the former BBC weatherman who despite getting the weather forecast correct 90%+ of the time will forever be remembered for the one time he didn't.
In 1987, on the eve of the Greatest storm the UK had seen in living memory Michael jovially stated "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't! - DOH!
"It's not whether you are right or you are wrong, its how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong "
(George Soros) Firstly apologies for the monthly update being late this month. Busy travel schedule and other commitments meant simply couldn't find the time until today..will be back to 1st next month I promise
Avid market watchers will have noticed that August has got of to a difficult start, with some of July's generally steady gains been given back already
That said, although China and EM had a negative month, developed markets continued the upward trend of 2019 with steady gains for July ..raw data being
MSCI World +0.4% +12.8%
S&P 500 +1.3% +18.9%
FTSE +2.2% +12.8%
Nikkei +1.2% +6.3%
SSE -1.0% +19.5%
MSCI EM -0.9% +12.5%
And on the currency front, the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK has seen Sterling have a bad month , the USD's performance against other currencies as below
GBP +4.0% +0.4%
EUR +0.8% +2.9%
JPY +0.9% -0.3%
AUD +1.3% +0.3%
CNY -0.2% +0.2%
So how much do currencies actually matter when it comes to investing? We all know how much they matter when your earnings / savings are generally in one currency but your spending is in another.
Nowhere is this more prevalent than for retirees who are on a GBP Pension in Thailand with their living costs being in Thai Baht
The double whammy of a very strong Thai Baht and very weak British pound has caused a dramatic drop in spending power for those who are on a fixed income in Sterling. So much so that many are even questioning whether they can afford to stay.
To illustrate this, a retiree who was on a £3,000 a month pension today receives over THB200,000 a year less ithan he did just 12 months ago. Go back to the heady pre-Brexit days, he was THB600,000 a year better off
A way to manage your currency is to have a spread of different options to draw on. Having earnings in the country you live in offers you some protection from scenarios such as above, but also having bank accounts in major currencies, USD , EUR & (dare I say it) GBP
So how does this reflect on your Investment Portfolio? Owning Global companies with Revenue streams from all over the world gives you that currency protection. Regular readers will know that I often talk about companies like Unilever and Diageo – investing in Global players reduces currency risk as oppose to a company that derives the majority of its income from one area
Moving onto markets themselves, as they have had such a good run in 2019 and generally been going up for over a decade, the question I get asked more is “when will the next crash be?”
This of course is assuming there will be another crash, as its human nature to think so. There is no doubt that equity valuations are somewhat high and taking some profits now is a good idea. As with every other Wealth Manager in the world I do not know what will happen in the markets in the next six months, precisely why when you look at analysts forecasts, half will suggest the market will continue to go up, half it will go down
A longer term investment horizon always leads you back to good Equity Funds. Good managers who buy good companies. That said we all also want to protect our gains
So sell now and the tricky question is what to do with the proceeds. Opportunities both correlated and non correlated to the stock market do exist and can earn you 5% + without taking on too much risk to obtain those sort of returns. You do though have give up some liquidity and be prepared to tie monies up for 2 – 5 years.
So that’s the trade off. Your investment portfolio should not have the proverbial eggs all in one basket. This is true for both asset allocation and currencies as mentioned earlier.
if a certain sector was to suffer a crash, your diversified portfolio means your losses are limited…make sure you are positioned where you need to be before its too late…
"Know what you own and know why you own it" (Peter Lynch)Quarter 2 for 2019 is over and after a difficult May , the markets in June had a great month, in fact the best since 1955 culminating in the best 6 months the S&P has had this century, 1997 being the last time S&P returns were better...raw data being
MSCI World +6.5% +15.6%
S&P 500 +6.9% +17.4%
FTSE +3.7% +10.4%
Nikkei +3.3% +6.3%
SSE +2.8% +19.5%
MSCI EM +7.7% +12.5%
And on the currencies, in what is usually a volatile area..somewhat of a benign month with major currencies edging their way back against the USD
GBP -0.5% +0.4%
EUR -0.1% +2.9%
JPY -0.4% -1.6%
AUD -1.2% +0.3%
CNY -0.6% -0.2%
So all in all a great first half to the year but to take the old football adage is 2019 going to be a a "game of two halves"
The above positive data somewhat seems to defy the general consensus on the state of the economy. Politically we are in an era where there are devisive figures about and perhaps its that which leads to the constant flow of comments such as the UK and the US being "in a mess" . Good performing markets, some of the lowest levels of unemployment in many years suggest otherwise.
I often talk about the consumer being a driving force in equity markets. The more tubes of toothpaste Colgate sell, the more the value of the company increases etc
There is an index out there which measures Consumer Confidence which is defined as "the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending"
Five contributing factors go into this measurement are:
The US however is sitting at 93%, Developing market giants India and China at 91% and 98% respectively...Vietnam is at 100% meaning never has consumer confidence been higher
Geo Political risks are there, the possibility of military action against Iran is strong with Donald in charge but history has shown that the market reaction will be short and brief
When grim headlines are in the news, its best to remember that geopolitical events are a regular part of investing but a long history of geopolitical developments shows us that these are only very short term. You should avoid overreacting to geopolitical developments and stick to long-term financial plans.
In fact, the above data still remains strong for both China and the US despite the "Trade War"..The Chinese markets and US markets being the best performing of those listed above. Whilst I hate predicting what will happen, I think we can expect a good day tomorrow as the talks between Trump and Xi at the G20 were reported as positive.
So I remain bullish and advocate well managed equity portfolios that own good companies that sell good / useful things for the consumer. I'm often asked about Gold and my answer is I do not buy it because I do not understand it. Unless you rock the Mr T look in the picture above, ever since the Gold Standard disappeared in the first half of the last century, I do not understand what value it has
You cannot eat it, burn it for fuel, send a text message with it , cure a chronic disease etc
And the results speak for themselves. Over the last five years, Gold returned an average of 1.3% per annum barely an inflation buster and in line with fixed deposit cash. The S&P returned 10% per annum....
Some businesses are inherently good. They have products that everyone wants and needs, this is where your long term steady growth is. To quote again the great Peter Lynch "Buy a Business that any idiot can run, because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to run it".....
"Prediction is difficult, especially when it involves the future" (Mark Twain)
So after a tremendous start to 2019, we had an adjustment across the board in May, perhaps a little more severe than anticipated although around half of those losses came during the last week.
Raw Data being...
MSCI World -6.1% +15.6%
S&P 500 -6.6% +17.5%
FTSE -3.5% +6.4%
Nikkei -7.4% +2.9%
SSE -5.8% +16.2%
MSCI EM -10.5% +4.4%
On the currencies, it was a strong month for the US Dollar, with gains across all major currencies with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Sterling had a tough month, with the political announcement that Theresa May was stepping down as conservative leader / Prime Minister giving the currency traders something to manipulate (despite it being on the cards for some time).
GBP +3.1% +0.9%
EUR +0.7% +3.0%
JPY -2.9% -1.2%
AUD +1.7% +1.5%
CNY +2.5% 0.4%
You may hear some Dinosaurs quoting the old saying about stock market investing in that you should "Go away in May and come back on St Leger's Day"
No doubt using the fall in the last month to vindicate this out dated theory. Looking at stock markets over the last fifty years, it is remarkable that 96% of gains have come from the months of November to April but only 4% have come from May to October. However looking at the last five years this gains have been split far more equally with 43% coming in the summer months (northern Hemisphere) and 57% coming in winter.
The world and the stock markets are of course very different places now to what they were 50 years ago so using seasonal cycles as an investment strategy in today's world is futile. Picking the time of year to invest is the same as making predictions and those of you who read regularly know my view on that.
Predicting market highs, market lows, when to buy and when to sell is not something that anyone is capable of doing accurately. Market analysts work hard on forecasting and of course your investments need to be assessed from time to time and views taken. I took quite a bit off my client portfolios at the end of April, not because I was predicting that May was going to be a particularly bad month, but simply because it was the sensible thing to do as there were good gains to lock in.
When you buy, when you sell is a bespoke individual decision based on many factors, not least the life cycle of your portfolio and where you are in that. Stock markets are volatile, we all know this and in this current era where we have the most volatile personality of any US President before, this will be highlighted. Friday being an example when Trump's announcement for the tariff on Mexican imports was both unpredictable and caused a hefty market reaction.
There is though always a "good home" for your monies when you do trim equity gains as would have been a good idea in April. Diversification is key and where the opportunity may not seem right in equities - bonds, derivatives, hedge funds and many other vehicles offer you the option to continue to make money even in a downward turn
But even in the equity space there were some shining lights last month. The Lindsell Train Global Equity Fund - probably my favourite Global Equity fund still made a 1.8% return versus a benchmark MSCI Global of -6.1% ( This same fund that was up a whopping 11.1% in 2018 when Global Equities were down) So what is their "secret". They buy good companies with good products that sell to a growing number of consumers. Around 15% of this fund is invested Unilever and Diageo. Tomorrow more Magnum ice creams and bottles of Johnnie Walker will be sold than yesterday...
Using information to make informed decisions on what areas will be successful and what areas less so is the way to obtain consistent capital growth despite fluctuations as we have just had. Not predicting which is a complete waster o money...just ask anyone who had a bet on Anthony Joshua last night......
As always feel free to get in touch to disuss further....
"The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing" (Walt Disney)The 1st May already and as many countries around the world celebrate Labour Day, the markets continue to be something to celebrate also. With the exception of a small pull back in China, four positive months so far in 2019 as the bull market continues. Raw data being
MSCI World +2.8% +15.6%
S&P 500 +3.9% +17.5%
FTSE +2.8% +10.3%
Nikkei +5.0% +11.2%
SSE -0.4% +23.5%
MSCI EM +3.5% +16.6%
As for Forex, a very benign month in what is inherently a volatile sector , the US Dollar's performance against other major currencies as follows:
GBP +/- 0% -2.3%
EUR +0.1% +2.3%
JPY +0.6% +1.8%
AUD +0.6% -0.2%
CNY +0.3% -2.4%
So what does that tell us about 2019, should we be locking in the gains for the "inevitable" correction as the Bears and Doomsayers will be telling you, or holding and enjoying continued growth as 2019 continues to grow from strength to strength from the glass half full brigade.
Of course no one knows the answer to this. All we can do is take a look at factors which may make impact. One thing I do know is that focusing on the very short term with stock markets is never worthwhile. They are volatile but to illustrate their durability, despite the worst December since The Great Depression and Q4, 2018 being one of the worst in history, the 12 month return on the S&P is still over 11%. Try finding that in the bank
If the S&P's growth continues at the same pace for the remainder of 2019, then coincidently the annual return will exactly equal that of the market's most successful year ever, 1954. That year, the return was 52.5%. Even the most ardent bulls are unlikely to tell you that we will equal or surpass the market's 91 year record, of course possible but unlikely.
One indication of a strong economy is the levels of unemployment. With today being the day that worker's rights are remembered, looking at the statistics on the current state of employment, it all reads very positively and is a factor in the excellent run the markets have had this year.
Whilst looking at the countries in the world with the lowest levels of unemployment, I was mildly amused to see that the four countries listed with the lowest percentage are Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Guernsey! Being a Channel Islander (albeit from the far more sophisticated island of Jersey :-)) living in South East Asia made me wonder about the relevance.
Looking at more developed economies, the numbers read well. The UK, US, Germany & Japan with current unemployment rates of 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.2% and 2.5% respectively and all at decade lows.
In the US, the last three years have seen unemployment remain below 5% year on year for the first time since the turn of the century. To find the prior period where there was a similar three year run you have to go back to 1967
One of my earlier monthly reports talked about population growth and therefore consumer growth and therefore stock market / portfolio growth. Coca Cola will sell more cans of coke next month than they did last. Employment leads to increase in consumption.
It's this demand by the consumer which has seen an increase in "Factory Cities" popping up for in places like Bangladesh and China
The largest of these "cities: employ 20,000 people. One of them, EUPA manufactures 25,000 Electrical appliances a day, not a week, a day. They only do so because there is a market to sell to ........
"The Opportunities that everyone cannot see are The Real Opportunities" (Jack Ma)So Quarter one of 2019 has now been and gone. Best performing first quarter in the US in a decade and with the exception of a small drop in the Nikkei, major markets posted their third positive month in a row...so all good...data being
MSCI World +0.7% +11.8%
S&P 500 +1.8% +13.0%
FTSE +2.0% +7.3%
Nikkei -0.8% +6.0%
SSE +5.1% +24.0%
MSCI EM +1.4% +12.7%
Fairly flat month for currencies with the Greenback edging its way ahead of most currencies as follows:
GBP +1.7% -2.3%
EUR +1.2% +2.2%
JPY -0.7% +1.2%
AUD +0.0% -0.7%
CNY +0.2% -2.4%
So the noticeable standout is China. A very simple passive play on the Shanghai exchange with $100k would have netted you a cool $24k profit so far this year, time to bank that I would say. The Emerging Markets return is one of the best with a 12.7% return, so it begs the question are Emerging Markets or Developed markets the best home for your money?
There's no doubt that potential for Growth exists in the Emerging Market space. I often talk about the consumer driving growth in companies which leads to growth in your investments and assets. According to MSCI - there are 23 countries which have "Developed Markets". The population of these countries combined is just under 1 billion which means that the other 6.6 billion live in countries with undeveloped markets.
However we must also consider that many of the companies which own global brands where that consumer growth sits are trading in Developed Markets. Companies like Unilever, Nestle, Coca Cola currently derive around 60% of their revenue from Emerging markets, this figure expected to increase to nearer 80% within the next 10 years. So we could state a case that these companies are Emerging Market stocks....in fact some Fund managers may use this to stabilise their offerings.
Risks in Emerging Markets are greater, generally more exposed to Geo Political events and volatile currencies. As with all investing it depends where you are in your cycle. Similar to clients looking for more fixed income as they approach retirement, your level of equity risk also needs to be managed according to your time horizons. Although everybody should have some exposure to the Emerging Markets, how much is an individual situation. But if you are young, capital growth focused and able to give your investments time you can afford to be overweight in this area. Over the last 5 years EM is where you will find the best returns
In that period, developed markets have made:
US - 52%
Japan - 40%
UK - 9%
Giving you an average of 34%
Looking at the world's two largest undeveloped markets of India and China (which also are home to one third of the world's population) we saw returns of:
India - 71%
China - 50%
Giving you an average of 61%. The China number also includes a market crash in June 2015 when in the year preceding, the Chinese market was up 250%....so any manager / advisor worth anything would have locked some of these gains in and given you a much better ROI than 50%
Yes, volatility is far more inherent in these markets but to reuse the quote by the great Charlie Munger in January's report using volatility as a measure of risk is "madness". You just need to make sure you have the right guidance when entering these choppy waters and you will sail out the other side happily.
So where was the best market for the last five years....no other than Jamaica. In five years the market is up 300%. Home to legendary athlete and all round cool customer Usain Bolt, one of the quirks of the Jamaican market is that is only opens for three & a half hours trading a day...but seems to work for them
So in closing yes Emerging Markets can be seen as risky but investing correctly in these areas will pay its rewards.......so in the words of another Jamaican legend, "Don't worry , about a thing, cause every little thing, gonna be alright.......
"A Goal without a Plan is just a wish" (Antoine De Saint - Exupery)So the month of February comes to an end, and as expected it followed January in the markets with all markets of interest being in positive territory for the month.
The results so far this year so underpin my comments that the dips / sell off at the end of last year do not reflect the fundamentals of the economy. Investors are starting to see sense now and are "back in the game"...raw data being (USD performance against.....)
MSCI World +3.1% +11.0%
S&P 500 +3.0% +11.0%
FTSE +1.5% +5.1%
Nikkei +2.4% +6.9%
SSE +13.1% +17.9%
MSCI EM +0.1% + 11.1%
So China was the biggest winner, with their market up a whopping 17.9% in the first two months of 2018. Yes its been a bumpy ride over there but the most populous country in the world and the world's second largest economy has bounced back from a dreadful 2018.
Currencies saw a mixed month for the USD. GBP is finally starting to claw its way back. Longer term, buying GBP at these very low rates is a good purchase in my opinion...raw data being
GBP -1.2% -4.0%
EUR +0.6% +1.0%
JPY +2.6% +1.9%
AUD +2.3% -0.7%
CNY -0.5% -2.6%
So well invested equity portfolios would have made you decent returns so far this year. All the "Greats" in investment history, Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Ben Graham etc have a very similar philosophy, buy well and hold. Good companies will come good, regardless of the storm that the market throws up from time to time.
Whilst we have to heed that advice and regular readers will indeed know that I often talk about this being the key to long term sustainable growth, of course a person's individual circumstances needs to be considered also. For working people with a 5 year plus investment horizon , having a well structured portfolio with an equity focus works. The general rule of thumb is as you get older and rely more on income from your investments, you shift from growth focused equities, into a more balanced approach and then into bonds / income producing.
There may also be cases where cash is required for a business, a property purchase etc and having equities may not work because no one can know what the value of those equities will be when you need the money.
The investment universe is huge. There are many ways to make money but just as there many ways to lose. Having a plan is key and seeking the right guidance to help you execute that plan so you can enjoy retirement free from any financial worries is what most people are aiming for.
Having a diversified portfolio is important when heading towards retirement as you rely on your investments to support your lifestyle. A balance of shares, bonds and property is important. If one asset class struggles you have the comfort of not having all your "eggs in one basket". That said being too diversified can impact on growth and be counter productive.
A couple of meetings with my clients allows me to establish what is the best path for them, how they can choose the correct plan to help them achieve their goals. There is not a one size fits all solution...
"Using volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital 2) the risk of an inadequate return" (Charlie Munger)So the first month of 2019 is over. Regular readers will know that when it comes to the markets I hate predicting. Thats not to say though that sometimes the markets can be predictable......January 2019 was such a month. As I wrote about at the beginning of the month, the December and last quarter of 2018 performance was not underpinned by fundamentals which made good companies great value...I just hope you took advantage...the raw data being:
Jan & YTD
MSCI World +7.7%
S&P 500 +7.9%
MSCI EM +11.4%
So after a few months of negativity, we had a positive market all round. The Emerging Markets (predictably having suffered the largest drops in the emotion led sell off) was the biggest winner up a whopping 11.4% in just a single month.....and on the currencies, the USD performed as follows:
So the Greenback is giving a bit back , not that anyone should be overly concerned about that. The farce which is Brexit could still have an impact on the £ and the EUR though my thoughts are most outcomes have been priced in. The Aussie Dollar has had a somewhat volatile time, again just reinforcing the fact to have some spread here...
So after the worst December since 1931, we get the best January since 1987. Ok so there is a gap between these years but 1987 is still 32 years ago...so best January in 32 years is still something you didn't want to miss out on. All great investors / investment managers do not fear volatility and nor should you
Although all the December losses in the developed markets may not have been given back completely, over the last 50 years positive markets in January have generally preceded a positive February, with average monthly gains of 1.34%. Continue this upward trend and that "worst December since 1931" will soon be forgotten or perhaps celebrated by those who saw the value and bought.
Whenever markets fall they come back stronger. Growth is inherent to the world we live in. Its a quite startling fact that in 1987, the last time we had a better January, the population of the world hit 5 billion people for the first time. Today we are at 7.7 billion, a 44% increase since 1987 which I'm sure many of you remember like it was only yesterday.
While we all know this isn't always positive and environmental and socio economic issues increase with this level of population growth, Unilever have have another 2.7 billion people to sell Lynx deodorant to, Nestle 2.7 billion more people to sell Kit Kats to, Diageo .......bottles of Johnnie Walker, Philip Morris..... Marlborough cigarettes, McDonalds... Big Macs, Nike ..trainers.........I think you get the idea
This growth is illustrated when you look at the performance of the S&P 500,whatever period you take..
Short - Term - 3 years + 39%
Medium term - 5 years +51%
Long term - 10 years +227%
I am sure that your routine today is similar to last Friday and dare I say it will be similar in a years time, perhaps even three or even five years time. You're spending money, more money and buying what you need and what you want. What you need and what you want is provided by companies who are on the S&P 500
You are always going to get Doomsayers out there, frantically scratching around looking for the next trigger for the markets to collapse, but this shouldn't concern you. If you want to go put all your money into Gold, be my guest but a 10 year investment here would have returned you 39% - The same the S& P did in 3 years and 17% of the return
We live in a consumer driven society and as those consumer numbers grow and so should your portfolios......
I've found that when the markets are going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy You won't get there by reading, now is the time to buy. (Peter Lynch)So just as we were heading for a solid 2018 return, an off the cuff comment by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the beginning of October caused as sell off which ultimately saw Wall Street experience its worst December since The Great Depression and the worst year in a decade.
Moving forward, monthly updates will show MSCI World, S&P and MSCI Emerging markets, replacing Dow Jones, Nasdaq & Dax. I believe these performances to be more relevant to my clients and prospects and EM especially is an area I am very positive about for 2019 and the longer term.....so lets look at the data / damage:
Dow Jones -8.7% -5.6%
Nasdaq -9.5% -3.9%
FTSE -3.6% -12.5%
Nikkei -10.5% -12.1%
SSE -3.7% -24.6%
Dax -6.2% -18.3%
S&P 500 -10.1% -6.2%
MSCI World -7.7% -10.4%
MSCI EM -4.3% -18.5%
So there were few safe havens in 2018 although we have had a lot worse years...and on the currencies we saw an equally volatile time, again just emphasising the need to have diversification here, owning some of each major currency
GBP 0.0% +4.1%
EUR -1.5% +4.3%
JPY -3.5% -2.7%
AUD +3.8% +11.0%
CNY -1.1% +5.7%
So with the exception of the JPY, the greenback was up against all other major currencies for the year..
So the big question is what happens next? Of course nobody actually knows the answer to that question (and if anyone tells you they do, run a mile) . If I have said it once I will say it a thousand times, predicting the future is futile.
Markets are emotional places and this is one of the reasons they go up and down. The recent sell off was basically a result of the "discussions" between Powell and Trump. Whatever your opinion on Trump maybe no one can deny that his behaviour is more volatile than any other US President I can remember and this volatile behaviour feeds volatility in the stock market. His spat with Powell illustrating this.
The best managers and investors in the world are the ones who can separate their emotions from facts. Looking at facts and fundamentals, GDP in the US remains at 3%, the best in a decade and unemployment near 50 year lows. Corporate earnings also remain strong so the foundation is there for a strong economy and you should be taking advantage of these cheap share prices.
For those who look at patterns, the nearest example in recent history I could find was 1989, 1990 & 1991.
1989 was a terrific year (as was 2017), 1990 we saw a stumble, with the S&P experiencing losses almost identical to last year...and in 1991 we saw a 26% increase. I am sure we would all take that return on our hard earned cash over the next 12 months...or even half of that.
Whilst predicting what will happen doesn't hold much water for me, I do of course take note of Wall Street analysts and strategists who use their skills, algorithms etc to give an opinion on where the markets will be.
This is their job. An interesting article I read this morning said that not a single strategist of the major Wall Street firms thinks 2019 will finish lower than it started. So advice is buy.
Getting out of that short term mentality is difficult but it is what separates people like the great Peter Lynch from the average investor. As with his comments above, buying low and selling high makes you happy. Lynch's performance was second to none during his reign at Fidelity from 1977 to 1990 he averaged 29% annually. To put this in perspective not once did the S&P reach that figure. During his tenure, the S&P had three years where it fell, worth noting that on each of those occasions the fall was greater than it was in 2018.
So thats my New Year advice. Buy now, and buy well using sound Fund Managers. Although Lynch is no longer working, other excellent managers such as Terry Smith, Mike Lindsell and Giles Hargreaves are still there to make sure you get the most "bang for your buck"
Emerging Markets have great value also.
I sincerely wish you all a fantastic New Year. Whilst remaining healthy and happy are the most important, having a prosperous wealthy 2019 would not go amiss.....and with everything positioned how it it, there's no reason why this shouldn't be the case.......
I'll be in touch